Could windfall Democratic gains frustrate a midterm Republican victory? | US midterm elections 2022

Joe Biden travels to Monday’s battleground states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, intent on recasting the US midterm elections as a defining choice between democracy and the extremism of Donald Trump.

And in his fight for every vote, the US president will celebrate Labor Day with growing confidence as polls show that while Republicans are still ahead, Democrats now have momentum heading home.

A string of unexpected legislative victories, combined with anger over the Supreme Court’s decision to end the constitutional right to abortion, may spur Biden’s supporters to turn out in droves in November.

Republicans, for their part, suffered self-inflicted wounds. Many of their Senate candidates — such as soccer star Herschel Walker of Georgia — have fame but few political pedigrees. The prospect of Trump facing criminal prosecution for keeping top-secret government papers at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida home also casts a shadow.

Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the incumbent president and his party usually loses seats. But recent events have left Republicans restless and Democrats dreaming of not only convening the Senate but — something unimaginable a few months ago — retaining their majority in the House of Representatives.

“The good news for us as Labor Day approaches is that we are in a state of humiliation,” he said. Tom Perezwho was chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) during the 2018 midterm elections. “We are putting points on the board and building momentum. And politics, especially in midterm politics, is about momentum.”

Neither Biden nor Trump is on the ballot, but they both loom midterm Re-election 2020 And a preview of a possible rematch in 2024.

Authorities stand outside Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence where the FBI executed a search warrant in August 2022.
Authorities stand outside Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence where the FBI executed a search warrant in August 2022. Photo: Cristobal Herrera/EPA

On Monday, the incumbent will speak at a Milwaukee ceremony at Labourfest in Wisconsin, where Trump ally Ron Johnson is the most vulnerable Republican senator to re-election in this cycle.

Biden will also stop in Pittsburgh, which hosts one of the oldest and largest Labor Day rallies, on his third visit to Pennsylvania in a week. Democrats John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro battle TV doctor Mehmet Oz and election denier Doug Mastriano in the Senate and Governor’s Palace, respectively. Eighteen seats in the House of Representatives are also available in the state.

In remarks in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Thursday night, Biden described “Republican maga” — using an acronym for Trump’s campaign slogan “Make America Great Again” — as representing extremism that threatens the foundations of the American republic. This came on the heels of previous comments in which he likened Maga’s philosophy to “quasi-fascism”.

Lake SelindaSuch hard-line rhetoric helps recast the election as a high-risk competition between the president’s agenda and back to Trump, said a veteran Democratic pollster who worked on Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign.

“It makes the comeback of Trump and Trump Republicans very scary for people,” she said. “And the idea that if you want to beat Trump in 2024, you have to beat him in 2022 is very prominent for Democrats.”

For months, Democrats have been urging Biden to use the full force of his bully pulpit. In focus groups, Lake said one of the main criticisms you hear about Democrats is not that they are too liberal, but that they are “too weak.” And when participants were asked to name an animal describing each party, participants often chose a turtle or sloth for Democrats and a wolverine or bull for Republicans, she said.

“We need to show strength and I think the president is really doing that,” Lake added.

Biden also used his prime-time speech to deliver his campaign speech, noting a record that includes “the largest economic recovery package since Franklin Delano Roosevelt…the largest investment in infrastructure since President Dwight D. Eisenhower…the most important gun safety law since President Clinton.. …the most important health care reforms since President Obama signed the Affordable Care Act…the most important climate initiative ever.”

These victories, despite a slim majority in Congress, along with rising job numbers and declining gas prices, have given Democrats renewed hope for the course of the election campaign. But perhaps the biggest game changer was the Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that recognized the federal right to abortion.

President Joe Biden delivers a speech on protecting American democracy in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
President Joe Biden delivers a speech on protecting American democracy in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Photo: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The Supreme Court has a 6-3 majority from conservatives including three justices appointed by Trump. The political backlash became apparent when voters in conservative Kansas flatly rejected a constitutional amendment that would have overturned the state Supreme Court’s decision guaranteeing the right to abortion.

Democrats are exploiting the issue, assuring that reproductive rights will be on the ballot in November. Republicans were forced onto the defensive, with many candidates in swing states removing hard-line anti-abortion language from their campaign websites.

Lake described the Supreme Court’s decision as a “magnitude ninth earthquake” that profoundly reshaped the political landscape in ways Republicans failed to predict.

Alan LichtmanProfessor of History at the American University in Washington agrees that “it has changed the plates of American politics tectonicly.”“, Adding, “If you look at the losses in 2018, 2014 and 2010, they were the most typical midterm losses for the party in the White House. We didn’t have that kind of burning problem.” that has affected people’s daily lives as is the issue of abortion.”

Banning abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest is just one example, in the Democrats’ account, of how extreme the “Republic of Maja” can be. Democrats’ efforts to make the election revolve around Trump, rather than inflation, crime or border security, received several aid from the former president, who has been embroiled in legal battles, holding rallies and dominating headlines since time immemorial.

People protested the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade.
People protested the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. Photo: Paul Sancya / AP

Such as Posted by Axios: “The GOP midterm candidates – who only want to talk about gas prices and groceries – have to contend with background music that once again represents Trump, Trump and Trump.”

“This is not just a rule for Democrats getting together, a lot of independent voters are reminded daily why they didn’t vote for Donald Trump,” said Perez, the former DNC chief.

Peres referred to Oz in Pennsylvania, Blake Masters in Arizona and J.D. Vance in Ohio as Trump-backed far-right candidates galvanizing Democrats and fending off independents. “The secondary force that gives us the wind in our back is the fact that the other side are not only extremes, but they present extreme candidates.”

Some Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, share the concerns. Ed Rogersa political advisor who worked in the administrations of Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush, said: “At the top of the list, The governor and senator in Pennsylvania worry me.

In Arizona, I’m worried about that [Democratic incumbent] Mark Kelly Not a good villain and ours kind of an idiot guy, I’m afraid he needs to pull off some absurdity. But what might save us is the border issue. There is no evidence that anyone ever listens to Mark Kelly regarding any moderation on the frontier.”

However, Rogers remains confident that a continued 50-50 split in the Senate is the “worst-case scenario” for Republicans, and that they will “definitely” win the House. He added: “Everyone is chasing the abortion rabbit and increasingly, it would be better for Democrats. Everyone is after searching in Mar-a-Lago and this and that.

“Forget it all. Focus your eyes on the big four: inflation and the economy; crime and the breakdown of social order, especially in our cities; borders and immigration out of control; and the collapse of public education in many US jurisdictions.”

The election could be less than a referendum on Biden from Trump. If his favorite candidates lose in Arizona, Pennsylvania and elsewhere, and if moderate Republican candidates succeed in states like New Mexico and Oregon, there will likely be renewed debate over his influence in the party.

Democrats received more positive tidings this week. Mary Biltola of the party won the A special elections Trump-backed Republican Sarah Palin for the House of Representatives seat in Alaska. Cook’s widely respected political report, a nonpartisan newsletter, Categories moved Five seats in the House of Representatives in the direction of the Democrats.

Democrat Mary Biltola won the special election for Alaska's only seat in the US House of Representatives.
Democrat Mary Biltola won the special election for Alaska’s only seat in the US House of Representatives. Photo: Mark Lister/AFP

But given that Democrats have a slim majority of 221-214 in the House, Republicans only need to get four seats, and Cook political report estimates, they are likely to get nearly three seats automatically thanks to the redrawing of congressional district boundaries.

Wendy Schiller “Republicans are still heading into the midterms with advantage in House districts, which have been manipulated in favor of one party or another, and voters always love the opportunity to register their discontent with the party in power in a renewal election,” said a political science professor at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island. half”.

She added, “In the Senate, the upper Midwest states of Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are the true indicators of the party’s national strength. In each of these states, the Republican Senate candidate has high negatives, but the GOP has had strong inroads among non-election voters. Dissatisfied with Biden, anger is a good incentive to get out of the vote.

“It is also unclear what turnout rates will be among African American voters in the midterm, and without strong participation among this voting base, Democrats will have a hard time winning there, and in other states such as Georgia and North Carolina.”

The midterm elections will determine control of Congress for the second half of Biden’s presidency. The democratic majority could allow him to press an ambitious agenda; The Republican majority could effectively turn him into a lame duck. Either scenario will affect the presidential race in 2024.

Lichtman of the American University believes that Biden will emerge stronger. “No matter what happens, expectations are everything and Republicans will not live up to expectations,” he said.

“I don’t think they will perform as expected in the midterm elections, and the Democrats will probably occupy the Senate, which is much more important than the House for the simple reason that they confirm all the judges. Biden has a lot of judicial appointments to make to face many From Trump’s appointments. So if they lose the Senate, it’s a disaster because you’re going to imagine Mitch McConnell holding everything back.”

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